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|a (JST)2692186
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|a DE-627
|b ger
|c DE-627
|e rakwb
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|a eng
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|a Cochrane, John H.
|e verfasserin
|4 aut
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|a Long-Term Debt and Optimal Policy in the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level
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|c 2001
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|a Text
|b txt
|2 rdacontent
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|a Computermedien
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|a The fiscal theory says that the price level is determined by the ratio of nominal debt to the present value of real primary surpluses. I analyze long-term debt and optimal policy in the fiscal theory. I find that the maturity structure of the debt matters. For example, it determines whether news of future deficits implies current inflation or future inflation. When long-term debt is present, the government can trade current inflation for future inflation by debt operations; this tradeoff is not present if the government rolls over short-term debt. The maturity structure of outstanding debt acts as a "budget constraint" determining which periods' price levels the government can affect by debt variation alone. In addition, debt policy-the expected pattern of future state-contingent debt sales, repurchases and redemptions-matters crucially for the effects of a debt operation. I solve for optimal debt policies to minimize the variance of inflation. I find cases in which long-term debt helps to stabilize inflation. I also find that the optimal policy produces time series that are similar to U.S. surplus and debt time series. To understand the data, I must assume that debt policy offsets the inflationary impact of cyclical surplus shocks, rather than causing price level disturbances by policy-induced shocks. Shifting the objective from price level variance to inflation variance, the optimal policy produces much less volatile inflation at the cost of a unit root in the price level; this is consistent with the stabilization of U.S. inflation after the gold standard was abandoned.
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|a Copyright 2001 Econometric Society
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|a Fiscal Theory of the Price Level
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|a Government Debt
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|a Price Level
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|a Inflation
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|a Economics
|x Economic disciplines
|x Applied economics
|x Econometrics
|x Economic indicators
|x Price levels
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|a Economics
|x Macroeconomics
|x Aggregate economy
|x Supply and demand
|x Supply
|x Surplus
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|a Business
|x Accountancy
|x Financial accounting
|x Financial liabilities
|x Debt
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|a Economics
|x Economic disciplines
|x Financial economics
|x Finance
|x Financial instruments
|x Loans
|x Loan financing
|x Maturity structure
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|a Economics
|x Economic research
|x Economic analysis
|x Economic value
|x Present value
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650 |
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|a Business
|x Accountancy
|x Financial accounting
|x Financial liabilities
|x Debt
|x Long term debt
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|a Business
|x Accountancy
|x Financial accounting
|x Financial liabilities
|x Debt
|x Outstanding debt
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|a Behavioral sciences
|x Psychology
|x Cognitive psychology
|x Cognitive processes
|x Decision making
|x Optimal policy
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|a Business
|x Business operations
|x Commerce
|x Pricing
|x Price shocks
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|a Information science
|x Data products
|x Datasets
|x Time series
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|a research-article
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|i Enthalten in
|t Econometrica
|d Wiley
|g 69(2001), 1, Seite 69-116
|w (DE-627)270425721
|w (DE-600)1477253-X
|x 14680262
|7 nnns
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773 |
1 |
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|g volume:69
|g year:2001
|g number:1
|g pages:69-116
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|u https://www.jstor.org/stable/2692186
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|d 69
|j 2001
|e 1
|h 69-116
|