The Analysis of Placement Values for Evaluating Discriminatory Measures

The Analysis of Placement Values for Evaluating Discriminatory Measures

The idea of using measurements such as biomarkers, clinical data, or molecular biology assays for classification and prediction is popular in modern medicine. The scientific evaluation of such measures includes assessing the accuracy with which they predict the outcome of interest. Receiver operatin...

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Veröffentlicht in:Biometrics. - Wiley-Blackwell, 1947. - 60(2004), 2, Seite 528-535
1. Verfasser: Pepe, Margaret Sullivan (VerfasserIn)
Weitere Verfasser: Cai, Tianxi
Format: Online-Aufsatz
Sprache:English
Veröffentlicht: 2004
Zugriff auf das übergeordnete Werk:Biometrics
Schlagworte:Classification Prediction Receiver Operating Characteristic Curves Sensitivity Specificity
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520 |a The idea of using measurements such as biomarkers, clinical data, or molecular biology assays for classification and prediction is popular in modern medicine. The scientific evaluation of such measures includes assessing the accuracy with which they predict the outcome of interest. Receiver operating characteristic curves are commonly used for evaluating the accuracy of diagnostic tests. They can be applied more broadly, indeed to any problem involving classification to two states or populations (D = 0 or 1). We show that the ROC curve can be interpreted as a cumulative distribution function for the discriminatory measure Y in the affected population (D = 1) after Y has been standardized to the distribution in the reference population (D = 0). The standardized values are called placement values. If the placement values have a uniform(0, 1) distribution, then Y is not discriminatory, because its distribution in the affected population is the same as that in the reference population. The degree to which the distribution of the standardized measure differs from uniform(0, 1) is a natural way to characterize the discriminatory capacity of Y and provides a nontraditional interpretation for the ROC curve. Statistical methods for making inference about distribution functions therefore motivate new approaches to making inference about ROC curves. We demonstrate this by considering the ROC-GLM regression model and observing that it is equivalent to a regression model for the distribution of placement values. The likelihood of the placement values provides a new approach to ROC parameter estimation that appears to be more efficient than previously proposed methods. The method is applied to evaluate a pulmonary function measure in cystic fibrosis patients as a predictor of future occurrence of severe acute pulmonary infection requiring hospitalization. Finally, we note the relationship between regression models for the mean placement value and recently proposed models for the area under the ROC curve which is the classic summary index of discrimination. 
540 |a Copyright 2004 The International Biometric Society 
650 4 |a Classification 
650 4 |a Prediction 
650 4 |a Receiver Operating Characteristic Curves 
650 4 |a Sensitivity 
650 4 |a Specificity 
655 4 |a research-article 
700 1 |a Cai, Tianxi  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
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