The Effect of Non-Stationarity on Extreme Sea-Level Estimation

The sea-level is the composition of astronomical tidal and meteorological surge processes. It exhibits temporal non-stationarity due to a combination of long-term trend in the mean level, the deterministic tidal component, surge seasonality and interactions between the tide and surge. We assess the...

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Bibliographische Detailangaben
Veröffentlicht in:	Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C (Applied Statistics). - Blackwell Publishers. - 48(1999), 2, Seite 135-151
1. Verfasser:	Dixon, Mark J. (VerfasserIn)
Weitere Verfasser:	Tawn, Jonathan A.
Format:	Online-Aufsatz
Sprache:	English
Veröffentlicht:	1999
Zugriff auf das übergeordnete Werk:	Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C (Applied Statistics)
Schlagworte:	Annual Maximum Method Extreme Sea-Levels Extreme Value Theory Joint Probabilities Method Return Level Mathematics Physical sciences Philosophy Applied sciences


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100	1		\|a Dixon, Mark J. \|e verfasserin \|4 aut
245	1	4	\|a The Effect of Non-Stationarity on Extreme Sea-Level Estimation
264		1	\|c 1999
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520			\|a The sea-level is the composition of astronomical tidal and meteorological surge processes. It exhibits temporal non-stationarity due to a combination of long-term trend in the mean level, the deterministic tidal component, surge seasonality and interactions between the tide and surge. We assess the effect of these non-stationarities on the estimation of the distribution of extreme sea-levels. This is important for coastal flood assessment as the traditional method of analysis assumes that, once the trend has been removed, extreme sea-levels are from a stationary sequence. We compare the traditional approach with a recently proposed alternative that incorporates the knowledge of the tidal component and its associated interactions, by applying them to 22 UK data sites and through a simulation study. Our main finding is that if the tidal non-stationarity is ignored then a substantial underestimation of extreme sea-levels results for most sites. In contrast, if surge seasonality and the tide-surge interaction are not modelled the traditional approach produces little additional bias. The alternative method is found to perform well but requires substantially more statistical modelling and better data quality.
540			\|a Copyright 1999 The Royal Statistical Society
650		4	\|a Annual Maximum Method
650		4	\|a Extreme Sea-Levels
650		4	\|a Extreme Value Theory
650		4	\|a Joint Probabilities Method
650		4	\|a Return Level
650		4	\|a Mathematics \|x Applied mathematics \|x Statistics \|x Statistical theories \|x Estimation theory \|x Estimation bias
650		4	\|a Mathematics \|x Applied mathematics \|x Statistics \|x Applied statistics \|x Inferential statistics \|x Statistical estimation \|x Estimation methods
650		4	\|a Physical sciences \|x Physics \|x Fundamental forces \|x Gravitation \|x Gravitational interaction \|x Tidal interaction
650		4	\|a Philosophy \|x Applied philosophy \|x Philosophy of science \|x Scientific method \|x Research variables \|x Research biases \|x Sampling bias
650		4	\|a Mathematics \|x Applied mathematics \|x Statistics \|x Applied statistics \|x Descriptive statistics \|x Central tendencies \|x Statistical median
650		4	\|a Applied sciences \|x Research methods \|x Modeling
650		4	\|a Mathematics \|x Applied mathematics \|x Analytics \|x Analytical estimating
650		4	\|a Physical sciences \|x Earth sciences \|x Geography \|x Geomorphology \|x Landforms \|x Coastal landforms \|x Coasts
650		4	\|a Mathematics \|x Applied mathematics \|x Analytics \|x Analytical estimating \|x Maximum likelihood estimation
650		4	\|a Philosophy \|x Axiology
655		4	\|a research-article
700	1		\|a Tawn, Jonathan A. \|e verfasserin \|4 aut
773	0	8	\|i Enthalten in \|t Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C (Applied Statistics) \|d Blackwell Publishers \|g 48(1999), 2, Seite 135-151 \|w (DE-627)300192061 \|w (DE-600)1482300-7 \|x 14679876 \|7 nnns
773	1	8	\|g volume:48 \|g year:1999 \|g number:2 \|g pages:135-151
856	4	0	\|u https://www.jstor.org/stable/2680793 \|3 Volltext
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952			\|d 48 \|j 1999 \|e 2 \|h 135-151