Housing and the business cycle in South Africa

This paper examines the housing-output growth nexus in South Africa by accounting for the time variation in the causal link with a bootstrapped rolling Granger non-causality test. We use quarterly data on real gross domestic product, real house prices, real gross fixed capital formation and number o...

Ausführliche Beschreibung

Bibliographische Detailangaben
Veröffentlicht in:369 EGFR SIGNALING IMPAIRS THE ANTIVIRAL ACTIVITY OF INTERFERON-ALPHA. - 2013 JPMOD : a social science forum of world issues. - Amsterdam [u.a.]
1. Verfasser: Aye, Goodness C. (VerfasserIn)
Weitere Verfasser: Balcilar, Mehmet (BerichterstatterIn), Bosch, Adél (BerichterstatterIn), Gupta, Rangan (BerichterstatterIn)
Format: Online-Aufsatz
Sprache:English
Veröffentlicht: 2014transfer abstract
Zugriff auf das übergeordnete Werk:369 EGFR SIGNALING IMPAIRS THE ANTIVIRAL ACTIVITY OF INTERFERON-ALPHA
Schlagworte:R31 C32 E32
Umfang:21
LEADER 01000caa a22002652 4500
001 ELV033684553
003 DE-627
005 20230625194713.0
007 cr uuu---uuuuu
008 180603s2014 xx |||||o 00| ||eng c
024 7 |a 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2014.03.001  |2 doi 
028 5 2 |a GBVA2014003000028.pica 
035 |a (DE-627)ELV033684553 
035 |a (ELSEVIER)S0161-8938(14)00039-8 
040 |a DE-627  |b ger  |c DE-627  |e rakwb 
041 |a eng 
082 0 |a 340 
082 0 4 |a 340  |q DE-600 
082 0 4 |a 610  |q VZ 
082 0 4 |a 610  |q VZ 
084 |a 44.44  |2 bkl 
100 1 |a Aye, Goodness C.  |e verfasserin  |4 aut 
245 1 0 |a Housing and the business cycle in South Africa 
264 1 |c 2014transfer abstract 
300 |a 21 
336 |a nicht spezifiziert  |b zzz  |2 rdacontent 
337 |a nicht spezifiziert  |b z  |2 rdamedia 
338 |a nicht spezifiziert  |b zu  |2 rdacarrier 
520 |a This paper examines the housing-output growth nexus in South Africa by accounting for the time variation in the causal link with a bootstrapped rolling Granger non-causality test. We use quarterly data on real gross domestic product, real house prices, real gross fixed capital formation and number of building plans passed. Our data span 1971Q2–2012Q2. Using full sample bootstrap Granger causality tests, we find a uni-directional causality from output to number of building plans passed; a uni-directional causality from real house price to output and a bi-directional causal link between residential investment and output. However, using parameter stability tests, we show that estimated VARs are unstable, thus full-sample Granger causality inference may be invalid. Hence, we use a bootstrap rolling window estimation to evaluate Granger causality between the housing variables and the growth rate. In general, we find that the causality from housing to output and, vice versa, differ across different sample periods due to structural changes. Specifically speaking, house price is found to have the strongest causal relationship with output compared to residential investment and number of building plans passed, with real house price showing predictive ability in all but one downward phase of the business cycle during this period. 
520 |a This paper examines the housing-output growth nexus in South Africa by accounting for the time variation in the causal link with a bootstrapped rolling Granger non-causality test. We use quarterly data on real gross domestic product, real house prices, real gross fixed capital formation and number of building plans passed. Our data span 1971Q2–2012Q2. Using full sample bootstrap Granger causality tests, we find a uni-directional causality from output to number of building plans passed; a uni-directional causality from real house price to output and a bi-directional causal link between residential investment and output. However, using parameter stability tests, we show that estimated VARs are unstable, thus full-sample Granger causality inference may be invalid. Hence, we use a bootstrap rolling window estimation to evaluate Granger causality between the housing variables and the growth rate. In general, we find that the causality from housing to output and, vice versa, differ across different sample periods due to structural changes. Specifically speaking, house price is found to have the strongest causal relationship with output compared to residential investment and number of building plans passed, with real house price showing predictive ability in all but one downward phase of the business cycle during this period. 
650 7 |a R31  |2 Elsevier 
650 7 |a C32  |2 Elsevier 
650 7 |a E32  |2 Elsevier 
700 1 |a Balcilar, Mehmet  |4 oth 
700 1 |a Bosch, Adél  |4 oth 
700 1 |a Gupta, Rangan  |4 oth 
773 0 8 |i Enthalten in  |n Elsevier  |a Lupberger, J. ELSEVIER  |t 369 EGFR SIGNALING IMPAIRS THE ANTIVIRAL ACTIVITY OF INTERFERON-ALPHA  |d 2013  |d JPMOD : a social science forum of world issues  |g Amsterdam [u.a.]  |w (DE-627)ELV016667247 
773 1 8 |g volume:36  |g year:2014  |g number:3  |g pages:471-491  |g extent:21 
856 4 0 |u https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2014.03.001  |3 Volltext 
912 |a GBV_USEFLAG_U 
912 |a GBV_ELV 
912 |a SYSFLAG_U 
912 |a SSG-OLC-PHA 
912 |a GBV_ILN_21 
912 |a GBV_ILN_70 
912 |a GBV_ILN_350 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2003 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2006 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2008 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2060 
912 |a GBV_ILN_2470 
936 b k |a 44.44  |j Parasitologie  |x Medizin  |q VZ 
951 |a AR 
952 |d 36  |j 2014  |e 3  |h 471-491  |g 21 
953 |2 045F  |a 340