Journal Article Danaus plexippus climate change growing degree day uncertainty Corazón de Borneo Heart of Borneo N-mixture models Poisson regression model Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S. air temperature biodiversity conservation breeding habitat bushmeat hunting cambio climático caza de animales silvestres climate projections community ecology conservación de la biodiversidad conservación tropical count data deforestación tropical demographic rates dinámica dynamic ecología comunitaria efectos indirectos forecasts full-annual-cycle model