Journal Article Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S. Bayesian model selection Comment IUCN Red List Red List Categories and Criteria Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't análisis de viabilidad poblacional climate change conservation planning declining-population paradigm linked demographic-habitat models long-term monitoring monitoreo a largo plazo paradigma de población en declinación planeación de la conservación population viability analysis probability of extinction selección de modelo Bayesiano threatened species