Journal Article Danaus plexippus Glassberg Glassberg 地图 Lepidoptera Poisson regression model Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S. Scott Scott 地图 acuerdo entre expertos arctic biodiversity borde detallado boreal breeding habitat butterflies climate change concavidad concavity detailed edge distribution models expert agreement expert score growing degree day inhomogeneous Poisson point process insect decline map porosity modelos de distribución de especies palmer drought index phenology