Decision strategies for handling the uncertainty of future extreme rainfall under the influence of climate change
Several extraordinary rainfall events have occurred in Denmark within the last few years. For each event, problems in urban areas occurred as the capacity of the existing drainage systems were exceeded. Adaptation to climate change is necessary but also very challenging as urban drainage systems are...
| Veröffentlicht in: | Water science and technology : a journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research. - 1986. - 66(2012), 2 vom: 05., Seite 284-91 |
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| Format: | Online-Aufsatz |
| Sprache: | English |
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2012
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| Zugriff auf das übergeordnete Werk: | Water science and technology : a journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research |
| Schlagworte: | Journal Article Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't |
| Zusammenfassung: | Several extraordinary rainfall events have occurred in Denmark within the last few years. For each event, problems in urban areas occurred as the capacity of the existing drainage systems were exceeded. Adaptation to climate change is necessary but also very challenging as urban drainage systems are characterized by long technical lifetimes and high, unrecoverable construction costs. One of the most important barriers for the initiation and implementation of the adaptation strategies is therefore the uncertainty when predicting the magnitude of the extreme rainfall in the future. This challenge is explored through the application and discussion of three different theoretical decision support strategies: the precautionary principle, the minimax strategy and Bayesian decision support. The reviewed decision support strategies all proved valuable for addressing the identified uncertainties, at best applied together as they all yield information that improved decision making and thus enabled more robust decisions |
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| Beschreibung: | Date Completed 28.08.2012 Date Revised 15.06.2012 published: Print Citation Status MEDLINE |
| ISSN: | 0273-1223 |
| DOI: | 10.2166/wst.2012.173 |