Journal Article Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S. climate change local adaptation temperature El Niño Southern Oscillation Review análisis de viabilidad poblacional circuit theory conectividad de paisajes corredor corridor demographic buffering demographic compensation density dependence dependencia de la densidad dinámica poblacional de plantas dispersal dispersión ecological forecasting environmental change environmental stochasticity especies sustitutas forecast geographical distribution landscape connectivity landscape demography matrix projection models mechanistic distribution model