Journal Article 7440-44-0 Carbon REDD+ Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't Review carbon offset causal inference deforestation emparejamiento evaluación de impacto forest degradation greenwashing impact evaluation inferencia causal matching pagos por servicios ambientales payments for ecosystem services plan de pre-análisis preanalysis plan preregistration prerregistro robust sólido teoría de cambio theory of change voluntary carbon market 匹配 变化理论 因果推理