Journal Article marine heatwaves marine protected area networks California Channel Islands National Marine Sanctuary ENSO Kelp forest communities Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't Santuario Marino Nacional de las Islas del Canal bioeconomic modeling biogeographic patterns causal inference climate change climate change effects community composition community structure conservación marina ecosystem functioning functional responses inferencia causal marine conservation modelo bioeconómico program evaluation programa de evaluación redes de áreas marinas protegidas resilience